Comprehending Conservative Party Influence

“New York City is a liberal town. For a candidate, there is no benefit in seeking the Conservative Line.”

Many of us have heard someone within the Republican Party say something like the above quote. For many years, republican candidates running in New York City were told to seek the Liberal Party line, even though Liberals have roughly the same number of registered voters as the Conservatives do. Why? Apparently it’s because a “conservative” cannot win in New York. Well, let’s not tell Serph Maltese and Marty Golden and Matthew Minrones, Republicans who sought cross-endorsement from the Conservative Party, and happen to be some of the few Republicans holding office in New York City.

Today, Republicans are asked to seek the Independence Party line because there are four times as many New Yorkers registered to the Independence Party than to the Conservative Party. New York Republicans believe there are plenty of New Yorkers that refuse to pull the switch for Row A in the booth. I find it hard to believe there are many people like that. After looking through the November 2005 results, when it comes to the local council races, the Independence line received only a few hundred votes for each candidate.

So should we believe that the Conservative Party, though influential in New York State, is not that influential in New York City, especially Manhattan?

I’ve been looking at some numbers and I’m starting to believe the NY Republican Party needs to begin running candidates with a more “conservative” platform then in previous election cycles.

In the Racetrack2006, we have a chart showing endorsements for our current gubernatorial candidates. Column one lists the county name, column two lists the number of registered Conservatives and column three lists the number of votes the Conservative line received in the last gubernatorial election.

If you look at the totals, at first glance, there doesn’t seem to be much of a difference in registered voters to votes on the line. When you take the entire state into consideration, an extra 21,800 votes doesn’t seem like a lot. Certainly registered voters to other parties will cross party lines to issue a protest vote or a “platform” vote and 21,800 is a small amount when it comes to the 11.6 million voters registered in the State.

But let’s look at the votes in New York City. Also, let’s take into consideration that a gubernatorial election may only draw 40%-45% of the registered voters out on Election Day. Also, let’s not forget that the “conservative” receiving the votes was Gov. George Pataki.

Bronx - reg. Con 3,833 vote # 2,176
Kings - reg. Con 5,243 vote # 8,679
New York - reg. Con 2,323 vote # 4,664
Queens - reg. Con 7,014 vote # 10,745
Richmond - reg. Con 4,481 vote # 5,505
Totals - reg. Con 22,894 vote # 31,769

First, we see four out of five boroughs had more votes on the Conservative Line than there are actual registered Conservatives. Clearly, there are voters out there, Democrats, Republicans, Conservatives, “no party” people, who vote on the basis of conservative principles.

Second, New York County received twice as many votes on Column D than there are registered Conservative. It is highly unlikely that county turnout for registered Conservatives was 100%, so 50% of the total tally cannot be Conservatives alone. If we assume turnout was in the 40%-45% range, then the vote total of 4.664 votes only consists of 1,000 votes from registered Conservatives (give or take a hundred).

Third, many registered voters vote for a reason. The number one reason would be a vote for the candidate whom a person feels is the best choice. Another reason would be a vote for the primary alternative to the candidate you do not want to win. There are people who vote strictly along party lines based on their belief of party platform. And there are people who vote to send a message saying “I’m voting for you, but on this party line, because I want you to adhere to this party’s principles.” I did this with my vote for Robert Morganthau in last year’s election.

I think it’s safe to say the Conservative Party received about 21,000 votes for governor in 2002 by registered voters who are not registered Conservative. Oh, and what was the over-under I mentioned before by total number of votes statewide to registered Conservatives? 21,800.

I’ve discussed “conservative values” with a republican district leader who is Hispanic. Many Hispanic voters are registered Democrat, but hold conservative values and it is likely there second line of choice on Election Day would be the Conservative Party line. I was in full agreement because I have a list of registered Conservatives for my Assembly District and many of the last names listed are Hispanic. The district leader told me that the Republican Party should take the Conservative Party more seriously in New York City. Clearly, we are not winning when we run “independent” or “liberal” candidates against Democrats.

We’ve debated this topic before on Urban Elephants, and I’m not suggesting we run candidates that come across as extreme right-wingers to New Yorkers. What I am suggesting is we have candidates who seek the endorsement from the Conservative Party and campaign on conservative issues that both the candidate and the party agree with. When I sought the endorsement, I went to the CPNYS website and I read through the platform, so I had an idea where we would agree. I presented the chairman with my positions where we were in agreement and that was all I needed to do to get their backing.

35% of the vote doesn’t win elections. Republicans and Conservatives are apparently staying home on Election Day, because the candidates we’re running aren’t resonating with the voter’s values and beliefs. It’s time to alter our course. If we don’t try presenting a more conservative platform with our candidates, how do we know it will do worse in the polls than a liberal platform?

*Reposted at Urban Elephants.