Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Building the Bronx GOP

I've been doing a little bit of research for republican party building in New York City. I want to publish some of my research, in the hopes that perhaps republican leaders from the specific areas I mention learn that they have the potential in strengthening the Republican Party on a grassroots level against the mighty democratic machine.

I started with Bronx County, because after reviewing registered republican totals for each of the five boroughs, I thought it would be a quick and easy process for our northern most city member.

Right now, the Bronx GOP has one legitimate candidate running for State Senate. In the 34th SD, Joseph J. Savino is attempting to "take back" the seat once held by prominent republican leader, Guy Velella. The 34th SD is comprised of large sections of the 80, 81 & 82 ADs, which are the only three Assembly districts where the GOP has a fighting chance. Fielding Assembly candidates to run simultaneously with Savino's Senate race should greatly increase the interest for the republican base in the northern Bronx. Are there even candidates for the Assembly?

I'm not too familiar with the Republican Party up in the Bronx, but I certainly hope they aren't a one-man show. If Savino wins the seat, I can only hope that he will work with his republican base and develop prospective candidates for the Assembly and City Council for 2008 and 2009 respectively. The first thing the county committee should do is designate district clubs in the three Assembly districts, 80, 81, 82. It is these three ADs where the GOP has a chance.

Why do I say there is hope in these three Assembly Districts? Because Republicans can and have won in these ADs. Mayor Mike Bloomber won all three Assembly Districts in his reelection bid in 2005.


AD - Percent
80 - 53.86%
81 - 62.40%
82 - 57.07%


I understand Mayor Bloomberg isn't necessarily considered a Republican among most fiscally conservative individuals. However, the most conservative voters in the Bronx come from these three Assembly Districts. In 2002, George Pataki's percentages for these districts was in the the mid to upper 40s and in the 80 AD, his 47.46% was a winning total (if just barely).

When it comes to President George Bush's numbers in 2004, he received 26% to 31% in these districts. All other Bronx districts weren't higher than 15%.

These are helpful and hopeful numbers for republicans to start building a base of support through republican clubs. Regular meetings and organization help the party grow and reach more and more voters come to a decision to vote republican.

When it comes to a City Council race, the 13th CD is pretty much the only one that appears attainable for 2009. The 11th CD is worth running a good candidate as well, but it doesn't appear that the 11th has the odds the 13th has. The Republican Party should represent each borough with at least one elected official for council, assembly and senate, so the council seat should be the 13th.

In 2005, Phil Foglia ran a spirited campaign for 13 CD and received 35.6% of the vote. The republican party should not give up on this seat and hopefully they will have someone groomed for 2009.

Recently, a republican club started in City Island. There next meeting will be May 10th. If you live near City Island and are a registered republican, please join them and help them start a new base of support for Republicans in the Bronx.

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