Comprehending Conservative Party Influence

“New York City is a liberal town. For a candidate, there is no benefit in seeking the Conservative Line.”

Many of us have heard someone within the Republican Party say something like the above quote. For many years, republican candidates running in New York City were told to seek the Liberal Party line, even though Liberals have roughly the same number of registered voters as the Conservatives do. Why? Apparently it’s because a “conservative” cannot win in New York. Well, let’s not tell Serph Maltese and Marty Golden and Matthew Minrones, Republicans who sought cross-endorsement from the Conservative Party, and happen to be some of the few Republicans holding office in New York City.

Today, Republicans are asked to seek the Independence Party line because there are four times as many New Yorkers registered to the Independence Party than to the Conservative Party. New York Republicans believe there are plenty of New Yorkers that refuse to pull the switch for Row A in the booth. I find it hard to believe there are many people like that. After looking through the November 2005 results, when it comes to the local council races, the Independence line received only a few hundred votes for each candidate.

So should we believe that the Conservative Party, though influential in New York State, is not that influential in New York City, especially Manhattan?

I’ve been looking at some numbers and I’m starting to believe the NY Republican Party needs to begin running candidates with a more “conservative” platform then in previous election cycles.

In the Racetrack2006, we have a chart showing endorsements for our current gubernatorial candidates. Column one lists the county name, column two lists the number of registered Conservatives and column three lists the number of votes the Conservative line received in the last gubernatorial election.

If you look at the totals, at first glance, there doesn’t seem to be much of a difference in registered voters to votes on the line. When you take the entire state into consideration, an extra 21,800 votes doesn’t seem like a lot. Certainly registered voters to other parties will cross party lines to issue a protest vote or a “platform” vote and 21,800 is a small amount when it comes to the 11.6 million voters registered in the State.

But let’s look at the votes in New York City. Also, let’s take into consideration that a gubernatorial election may only draw 40%-45% of the registered voters out on Election Day. Also, let’s not forget that the “conservative” receiving the votes was Gov. George Pataki.

Bronx - reg. Con 3,833 vote # 2,176
Kings - reg. Con 5,243 vote # 8,679
New York - reg. Con 2,323 vote # 4,664
Queens - reg. Con 7,014 vote # 10,745
Richmond - reg. Con 4,481 vote # 5,505
Totals - reg. Con 22,894 vote # 31,769

First, we see four out of five boroughs had more votes on the Conservative Line than there are actual registered Conservatives. Clearly, there are voters out there, Democrats, Republicans, Conservatives, “no party” people, who vote on the basis of conservative principles.

Second, New York County received twice as many votes on Column D than there are registered Conservative. It is highly unlikely that county turnout for registered Conservatives was 100%, so 50% of the total tally cannot be Conservatives alone. If we assume turnout was in the 40%-45% range, then the vote total of 4.664 votes only consists of 1,000 votes from registered Conservatives (give or take a hundred).

Third, many registered voters vote for a reason. The number one reason would be a vote for the candidate whom a person feels is the best choice. Another reason would be a vote for the primary alternative to the candidate you do not want to win. There are people who vote strictly along party lines based on their belief of party platform. And there are people who vote to send a message saying “I’m voting for you, but on this party line, because I want you to adhere to this party’s principles.” I did this with my vote for Robert Morganthau in last year’s election.

I think it’s safe to say the Conservative Party received about 21,000 votes for governor in 2002 by registered voters who are not registered Conservative. Oh, and what was the over-under I mentioned before by total number of votes statewide to registered Conservatives? 21,800.

I’ve discussed “conservative values” with a republican district leader who is Hispanic. Many Hispanic voters are registered Democrat, but hold conservative values and it is likely there second line of choice on Election Day would be the Conservative Party line. I was in full agreement because I have a list of registered Conservatives for my Assembly District and many of the last names listed are Hispanic. The district leader told me that the Republican Party should take the Conservative Party more seriously in New York City. Clearly, we are not winning when we run “independent” or “liberal” candidates against Democrats.

We’ve debated this topic before on Urban Elephants, and I’m not suggesting we run candidates that come across as extreme right-wingers to New Yorkers. What I am suggesting is we have candidates who seek the endorsement from the Conservative Party and campaign on conservative issues that both the candidate and the party agree with. When I sought the endorsement, I went to the CPNYS website and I read through the platform, so I had an idea where we would agree. I presented the chairman with my positions where we were in agreement and that was all I needed to do to get their backing.

35% of the vote doesn’t win elections. Republicans and Conservatives are apparently staying home on Election Day, because the candidates we’re running aren’t resonating with the voter’s values and beliefs. It’s time to alter our course. If we don’t try presenting a more conservative platform with our candidates, how do we know it will do worse in the polls than a liberal platform?

*Reposted at Urban Elephants.

Week in Review 1/30 - 2/3

Monday, 1/30
Gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer, who has positioned himself as an enforcer against special interests, has turned to lobbyisst to help him raise money for his campaign. Mr. Spitzer raised nearly $1 million at a fundraising gala in December, which mainly included lobbyists.

Judge John Gleeson of the Eastern District ruled that the state Legislature needs to change the current system to make the elections for state Supreme court more democratic. The lawsuit was brought by a biartisan group of nine plaintiffs, including maverick Brooklyn surrogate Margarita Lopez Torres. The winners are the voters. The losers are the party leaders. But now, the voters must be even more aware of their local government.

Governor Pataki announced new legislation that will use $100 million of state funding to provide subsidies to low-income families for their energy bills. The additional program places priority on households with people who are age 60 and older or have children under 6, because they are considered vulnerable.

The Jamaica Bus Line began running under the banner of Metropolitan Transit Authority on Monday, part of the private line take over negotiated between the city and the MTA. While free marketers and capitalists see this as a danger, our mayor and city government under democratic control seem to think monopolies are the way to go. All you need is a little regulation to hold costs down and when they exceed the revenue stream, you just tax the people more. Right?

Longtime political aide, Lisa Rosenthal, won the Democratic candidate nod for the 67th Assembly District after two ballots from the district committee members. Charles Simon and Mike Lupinacci have successfully petitioned and will also be on the Feb 28 ballot. The Republican candidate will be Emily Csendes, a Harlem teacher who ran for the State Senate seat in 2004.

In district 74, community activist Sylvia Friedman upset the expected favorite, Stephen Kaufman, Mr. Sanders former Chief-of-Staff, and will go on to face community leader, Frank Scala.

Councilman David Weprin, who is chairman of the finance committee, has joined City Comptroller William Thompson Jr, has urged Governor Pataki to make the state sales tax exemption on clothing purchased under $110, permanent. Mayor Bloomberg & Assemblyman Sheldon Silver said they like your money and want the tax to remain. Sort of a “the less you have, the more control we have over you” mentality, don’t you think? Republicans should join Weprin and Thompson on this and be vocal.

Congressman Anthony Weiner says the Federal program, No Child Left Behind Act, is underfunding New York Schools. The problem with the congressman’s rhetoric is he argues as if the money was here in the first place and now the Federal Government is shortchanging us by $2 billion. Truth be told, prior to NCLBA, this funding didn’t exist. So any money received over nothing ($3.9 billion) is a heck of a lot of money.

New York’s junior Senator, Hillary Rodan Clinton says the Bush administration is racist (or maybe not that but close to it). Maybe Bush lacks the compassion he claims to have for failing to respond to hurricane funding in New Orleans. Of course, we all know she’s positioning herself for 2008. We also know that she said nothing about Biloxi and and the entire region outside of New Oleans. New Orleans has become the “Sunni Triangle” of the Gulf. You have an entire region that needs rebuilding, but the news and democrats focus on one particular area.

Tuesday 1/31
The Bloomberg administration’s revised plans to put an expanded eating establishment in the northern end of Union Square Park is angering some lawmakers, park advocates and area residents. The initial plans called for a year-round restaurant after a refurbishment of the 80 year old pavilion. Concerns over space for the farmers market, children’s playgrounds, public rest rooms arose with the park’s committee at Community Board 5. Read more about the latest developments in this New York Sun article.

The Pataki administration opposed an application by the Oneida Indian Nation to place nearly 17,000 acres of central New York property in a federal land trust that would essentially exempt the parcels from local and state laws and taxes.

Randy Levine defended plans for a new Yankee Stadium, saying its proposeed site is the only one available. Mr. Levine promised to use Bronx businesses and employ Bronx residents during and after construction. Community groups and parks advocates have attacked the planned stadium on grounds that it will displace 22 acres of Macomb’s Dam & John Mullaly parks.

A new poll says that if Sen. Clinton won the Democratic nomination for President, she’d lose. Republicans could be energized by this and run attack ads using a Donovan song.

Leecia Eve and Jon Cohen announced that they are ending their Lieutenant governor candidacies. Mr. Spitzer’s choice of Sen. David Paterson drew criticism in democrat circles, but it appears the weeds are being sowed and the lemmings are following the orders of their leader. Deja Vu to the 2004 Iowa Caucus for president, ain’t it?

State Senator Carl Kruger says the city’s housing authority should conduct systematic criminal background checks on its tenants. People with criminal records became an issue after the death of a police officer while he was chasing three alleged shoplifters, two of whom were living in public housing.

The MTA announced a pilot program with MasterCard and Citigroup that could lead to subway riders being able to simply tap and enter subway turnstiles. The device would be similar to PayPass, which is used by movie theatres and pharmacies. The pilot plan is expected to be tested on the Lexington line.

Rather than give back money the city has collected from us in last year’s budget, the mayor plans on keeping it, setting it aside for health costs, because remember, government knows what’s best for us. Whether its about smoking, health care, putting a device that lets everyone know we are speeding, or what-have-you, big brother wants to make sure we do as they say, and not what the constitution says.

In Tuesday’s New York Sun, J.P. Avlon continues to show his inability to grasp the right way New York Republicans need to unite, so they can be a force against the state’s overwhelming liberalism. I like J.P. I think he generally confronts issues with the right approach. But too often, he leaves his libertarian side and argues a liberals point of view. He thinks he’s being libertarian, but he’s not. Also, I don’t think he fully understands what the New York Conservative message really is. Sorry J.P. I know you have more experience that me when it comes to working in government, but perhaps that experience has pushed aside positions and values that many New Yorkers still have when it comes to how they want to be governed.
Wednesday
City Council members are set to introduce their first measures of the year, including a resolutin calling on Albany to give the council control over it’s rent and eviction laws. The state has assumed jurisdiction under the 1971 Urstadt Law. Hopefully the governor will not be completely foolish and listen to the New York City Council. Also, they’ll introduce a resolution telling the state to abide by judicial legislation when it comes to school funding. Normally legislators are supposed to write law, but the City Council feels comfortable when judges do the same. What can you expect when 48 of the 51 city legislators are democrats. Democrats feel comfortable hiding behind decisions made by others.

Rising county property taxes across the state remain largely the result of a costly Medicaid system, even as a cap this year significantly curbed local contibutions into the program. Without the cap, counties would have to pay $190 million more this year in taxes. The comptrollers office previously estimated that county taxes statewide would have to increase by an average of almost one-third by 2010. The governor has urged county leaders to put the savings towards property tax relief and for New York City to invest the savings into the city’s schools.

Thursday 2/2
Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno continues to hold out on hope that some moneybags big name will step forward and run as a Republican for Governor. Sadly, no one close to the senator has told him that he must settle on one of the four candidates that are already in the mix. Lately, Mr. Bruno has come off as being very anti-republican and the party faithful has bitten their tongues and pass over on his remarks. He is in the pockets of kingpin Dennis Rivera, so there is very little hope for Mr. Bruno to return to the republican party. It would be wise for the Conservative Party to go back to its roots and run as many Senate & Assembly candidates in areas where republican principles have been removed. Bye Bye Senator.

Now that billionaire Tom Golisano has said he won’t run for governor (unless he pulls a Ross Perot and decides to reenter), a new poll shows have the registered republican voters still unsure who to vote for. My message to registered republicans, “GO ONLINE! DO INTERNET SEARCHES. VISIT URBANELEPHANTS.COM or NewsCopy.org or visit blogs.timesunion.com/capitol. DON’T BE OBLIVIOUS!”

Elected officials and business groups plan to protest today the increases on cigarette taxes Mayor Bloomberg an Governor Pataki have proposed. Critics of the tax higes say that before the city and state raise cigarette levies, they must start collecting taxes from native American retailers who have long been exempted. The opponents, included city council member, Oliver Koppell, and a state senator, Jeff Klein, cite a unanimous 1994 US Supreme Court ruling that the state could legally tax Native American ciagarette raitlers. Following the decision, state lawmakers passed legislation imposing taxes on the retailers, which they say the governor has refused to enforce.

The City Council will consider two bills aimed at improving the Administration for Children’s Services, an agendy reeling from the recent deaths of two children whose cases it was investigating. One bill would cap at 12 the number of cases a social worker could handle at one time, and a second measure would require the agency to submit the monthly reports to the council.

Friday 2/3
City Council members sparred with representatives of the MTA charging that they are not moving fast enough in making security changes to its infrastructure. The general council to the MTA told Transportation Committee members that most of the $591 million eearmarked for security improvements three years ago has been awarded out in contracts. Upon finding out that a $212 million contract with Lockheed Martin to add smart cameras would not take until 2998, several council members expressed dismay at the slow progress. The MTA said they were operating as fast as it can without rushing important assessments and testing of technology.

A coalition of small business owners across the city and state joined politicians outside city hall to create a unified front against proposed cigarette tax hikes. Opponents argue that not only do the txes hurt small businesses, they give incentives to smokers to seek purchases on the black market.

What's My Election District?

If you've ever wondered how you can find out who represents you and what district you're considered to be in, The New York Gov website tells you how you can find out.